Fearon’s study, if it proves anything, actually shows the dangers of Iran’s acquiring a bomb. The reduction of war is precisely the problem: because no one wants to fight a nuclear power, that power is safe to do all sorts of pernicious things safe from military intervention. In the case of Iran, this could include messing with oil shipping or other tactics to drive up prices, and supporting Hezbollah/Hamas in strikes against Israel. Note that the latter involves war, but would not show up in Fearon’s data because it uses proxies. Pakistan is similarly insulated. What Fearon’s study suggests (again, with a very small data set) is that getting the bomb is a total insurance policy, and any prospect for intervention must be pre-bomb.
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